Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 21.219712 23.175904 25.352994 27.980915 31.102368 34.738422 39.366794
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 18.319041 20.858886 23.903279 27.910729 33.195121 40.166567 50.536075
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 16.230259 19.039219 22.595087 27.603381 34.812143 45.470610 64.086412
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 14.673784 17.604649 21.474379 27.230889 36.162878 50.844186 81.186896
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 13.507520 16.500113 20.589435 26.960970 37.532355 56.769867 104.552882
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 12.594554 15.616024 19.865657 26.758361 38.911852 63.337044 137.913395
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 11.724979 14.695637 18.963046 26.096832 39.288041 68.087035 175.402590
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 11.411423 14.526187 19.140278 27.209981 43.282059 83.637220 312.458139
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 10.846378 13.934268 18.593563 26.971987 44.474569 92.935663 500.863325
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 10.421747 13.514082 18.268905 27.071226 46.434706 106.531011 1103.967627
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 10.070656 13.175696 18.037730 27.300039 48.781413 124.492501 7097.205294
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 9.734057 12.833639 17.764612 27.400143 50.860956 144.856249 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 9.345911 12.390936 17.291562 27.050495 51.714147 161.670521 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.048165 12.073166 17.006978 27.051538 53.602059 189.830480 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.736942 11.715659 16.624641 26.794323 54.672466 216.843010 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.439837 11.364973 16.228611 26.457447 55.417919 245.687749 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.178476 11.059073 15.891175 26.209209 56.410961 284.156767 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.944722 10.786844 15.595912 26.020582 57.583488 335.686158 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.669549 10.434060 15.131800 25.391508 56.989897 360.377305 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 7.626868 10.464621 15.375687 26.455033 63.296475 629.283570 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 7.429919 10.226542 15.099466 26.228669 64.368814 809.544247 NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 7.282237 10.065430 14.959315 26.323681 66.933902 1278.766480 NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 7.156673 9.936315 14.871950 26.542104 70.248776 2724.591362 NaN